Predictions for 2010

The first Mobile Monday Edinburgh of the year focussed on the attendees' predictions for the key trends, opportunities and issues affecting mobile in 2010 - and in some cases beyond! This was in part inspired by Rudy De Waele's excellent Mobile Trends 2020 compilation.

• Garry Irvine of Connected Day started us off by a simple prediction that the iPad will have a disruptive effect on the marketplace.
  
• Richard Marshall of Rapid Mobile noted that there is an ongoing huge increase in smartphones in the market in Europe, but that the entrenched nature of the platforms means that this will lead to more fragmentation, not less.
• Alisdair Gunn of Wireless Innovation views the education sector together with the move of traditional print publishing into mobile as being a key combination - with the children in the schools very much leading the way driving the uptake of new approaches and models.
• Ben Hounsell of nio predicted the continued rise of web based platforms (e.g. Palm WebOS, HTML5 widgets, etc) as developers seek to avoid the fragmentation predicted by Richard.
• Rachel Lane of Blonde optimistically predicted an increased understanding of the mobile usage characteristics of the actual audience of mobile apps and services, as well as noting that mobile is simply an extension of the user's existing digital activity.
• Jessica Williamson of nio and StartupCafe predicted an increased prevalence of and more sophisticated use of sensors to allow the phone to detect its environment and thus provide context sensitive behaviour. In particular she hopes by years end that her phone will be able to tell when she is in a bad mood and warn her friends to avoid her ...
• Alan Paxton of Isomaly succinctly stated that in 2010 mobile is now in the mainstream - not a niche any more.
• Gordon Povey of Artillium noted that in Benelux in particular there is an upswing in the number of MVNOs, and that they are more open to taking risks with cool and innovative new services than the traditional telcos - though he conceded that this isn't currently happening in the UK. He also predicted that more sophisticated mobile app revenue models will start to become truly viable this year - e.g. freemium etc
  
• David Richardson of Edinburgh University Informatics expressed a frustration with the large number of companies who want to engage with mobile but don't understand it - an iPhone app is not always the answer - needs to address the mainstream.
• Ronnie Forbes of Mobiqa felt that geolocation will be a key trend this year. He also stated that it is ridiculous that you need to buy apps from the company who sells you the device - and somewhat contentiously stated that App Stores are a passing fad.
• Graham West of Mobiqa stated that mobile web will overtake J2ME this year, with web tech used to create an app like experience for the end user. He also predicted that this will not be the year for NFC.
• Adrian Williamson predicted that this will be the year that end users start to volunteer to pay for content they really want - shaking up the publishing value chain and freeing the industry from the "everything is free" days of the internet.
• Annette Leonhard of Edinburgh University Informatics noted that for many of the big ideas in mobile to succeed data coverage needs to be ubiquitous, reliable, and affordable, including international roaming.
• Paul Wilson of Edgecase will be interested to see how the iPad blurs the distinctions between mobile and personal computing, and between the traditional and mobile web.
  
• Adrian Astley-Jones of Reality Gap agreed with Ben and Graham that this will be a key year for growing mass market acceptance of the mobile Internet.
• Jim Wolff of the Leith Agency predicted a massive rise in the number of "personal apps" based on tech such as iSites. In digital marketing he predicted a move away from simple gimmicks such as iPint, into branded utility apps that will have longer term traction.
• Anthony Ashbrook of Mobile Acuity notes the start of a trend away from simple textual search and towards visual search on mobile - with many examples ranging from simple barcodes, through AR, into Google Goggles, Amazon remembers, and Nokia Point and Find.
  

My own prediction is rather more general and is about how real people (normob - not promob) perceive their mobile devices. I see this as moving away from being about simple communications towards being pervasive connected computing - perhaps towards the form predicted by Ian M Banks in his Culture SF novels.

Interestingly the reaction from the majority promob in the room was one of "so what, that is already here". My observation would be that isn't yet true for the majority, but perhaps by the end of the year we will see the same reaction there too? Only time will tell!

PS. Carnival #209 is up over at WAP Review.

Why would anybody ever use iPhone tethering?

Following the live feed from WWDC provided by Mac Rumors I was delighted to see that the new iPhone would allow tethering on O2 in the UK. I was less pleased to find out, when looking at the details on the O2 site the next day, that users will have to pay an *extra* £15pm for the privilege of using it!

I have been tethering on various Nokia S60 handsets first on T-mobile and then on 3 for the last 3 years. It is not something I do very regularly - more a fallback - and relatively low volumes of data involved, but it is an important safety net.

While I am still very tempted to go for the new iPhone for other reasons, though still intrigued by the Android based Samsung i7500 if they would get on and launch it, I am now seriously questioning whether tethering will be part of my future at all.

All of the handsets I am now looking at provide pretty good access to web and email, and have a wide selection of apps which can handle a lot of the tasks I used to use my laptop for, but there will still be times when I need to get online with my laptop urgently so what to do?

This has led to me having a look round at the various PAYG 3G dongle options available. I had expected them to be fairly similar to each other give or take the usual demographic differences in the operators typical users, but I was pleasantly surprised by the range of options out there:

• Vodafone. £39 upfront with 1Gb data included. Dongle doubles as 4Gb memory stick. No time limits on using the data at all - but need to use once every 180 days to keep live. Once it runs out £15 to topup with another 1GB. Possible to use on a Mac at a push but not yet officially or well supported which is a pity!
• T-Mobile. £24.46 for the dongle. Pay to use: £2 per day, £7 per week, or £15 per month. 3Gb per month fair use policy. Mac is supported.
• O2. Dongle costs £29.99. Pay to use: £2 per day (500Mb), £7 per week (1Gb), £15 per month (3Gb). Unlimited wifi use via the Cloud - assume during usage periods! Mac is supported.
  
• 3. £29.99 for the dongle. Buy and convert a topup into a mobile broadband addon for a months access: £10 for 1Gb, £15 for 3Gb, or £25 for 7Gb. Mac is supported.
  

Quite a few different takes on how to price this sort of thing here - with the "right" choice very much dependent on your pattern of use. Of course for higher volume and/or regular use a contract makes more sense.

So in summary the pricing offered by O2 would only potentially make sense for people who need high volume data access while out and about very regularly, and it has to be said that in simple usability terms a seperate contract 3G dongle would make a *lot* more sense for that sort of user as opposed to having to wire their handset to their laptop all the time.

The way O2 have priced tethering simply doesn't make sense - but perhaps that is their intention. Doing it as they have they have the headline feature (unlike AT&T!) but won't have to support any large scale use of it.

PS. The latest carnival is up over at a consuming experience.

3's brave new world!

3 in the UK are heavily promoting that they are changing mobile forever by offering unlimited free calls. At a slightly closer glance this is all based around their relationship with Skype - and what they are really saying is that people on a 3 contract or on PAYG for 90 days after activating a top-up, will be able to make unlimited free Skype calls to other skype users and landlines and mobiles abroad.

There are some small flies in the ointment however:

• you need a handset that can run the three Skype client. My E61i I use on 3 isn't supported which is a pity, especially snce other equivalent handsets are. All the current handsets being sold are compatible which is good.
  
• you must use the special 3 skype client. If you use some other skype clinet (e.g. Fring) you will rack up significant data traffic which could end up costing you a lot. Can't help feeling that this is going to be confusing for the normob and will lead to a Daily Mail headline or two. Usual mobile industry problem of lack of simple predictability of cost.
  
• According to the support site "3 doesn’t support Skype video calling (known as SkypeIn), Skype SMS (texting) or Skype voicemail" (sic) so if you use anything beyond the basics of Skype you are out of luck.
• SkypeOut only works outside the UK - if you want to make calls to UK numbers you have to use a conventional mobile voice call.
  

While it would be easy to throw our hands up in horror at some of these restrictions they do make some sense in terms of making it possible for 3 to do it at all - and provide a usefully different view on mobile service provision in the process. Distinctly disruptive!

At a more strategic level this is one one hand fairly brave and on the other playing to their strengths. The obvious risk of any operator doing this sort of thing is that they canibalise their voice revenues, but given 3's demographic are not likely to be massively voice-centric this is far less of a risk for them than it would be for the likes of Vodafone - who are thus unlikely to feel able to follow giving 3 a useful point of differentiation.

Three have been doing this for a while now - since the X series came out - but they seem to be now pushing it as the defining difference of being with 3. Will be interesting to see how the other operators respond!

PS. This week's carnival is up over at mobilestance.

More data charge lunacy

I guess I should start with a small disclaimer. This was reported on the register and they have been known to skew their facts a little from time-to-time. That said - back in December they published a remarkable article on data charging gone wrong.

The problem with this - and other similar stories that do the rounds - is not that the operator can set some rules and then charge based on them. The problem is that the typical end use has no idea when they will be charged or not. There is no warning given - first you know is a five figure phone bill.

*If* vodafone really act like this then they need to look very hard at their processes and procedures.

30Mb/month = "unlimited"

Read it and weep ...

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06/04/orange_caps_at_30mb/

30Mb a month is "unlimited" - and I thought the Voda deal was bad! Still unclear how punitive it will be in terms of the "limit" and "acceptable use". Will going over cause you to get a phone call to tell you to moderate or upgrade; or cause a nasty surprise on your bill at the end of the month?

Geoff.

More operators go unmetered - ish!

In rapid succession Orange and Voda have announced new data packages which go some way to answering the existing unmetered packages from T-mobile and 3. First off I want to say that in general this is a good thing (tm) - an absolutely necessary step towards regaining consumer confidence in data services.

The issue of "consumer confidence" is really the crux of this. If users are uncertain how much they will end up having to pay then they are much less likely to use data services. With that in mind let's looks at the new offerings.

Orange's new package, which is available to both contract (£8pm, or £5pm evenings and weekends) and PAYG (£5 for 7 days), provides for unlimited "browsing". It is unclear as yet where precisely the bounds of acceptable use will fall here though the text reported by el reg ...

"modem access for computers, internet based streaming services, voice or video over the internet, instant mssaging, peer to peer file sharing and non Orange internet based video."

... suggests it is more or less in line with the lowest tier of T-mobile's contract web-n-walk.

The Vodafone package - which is dissected in some detail though possible a little contentiously over at disruptive wireless - is a little different. It is not an optional package and will be applied to all users from the start of June. It keeps the basic principle of metering by the kb used but only charges users for the first half Mb of data each day, and then any data used above-and-beyond 15 Mb in a single day. All data is charged at £2/Mb.

This is quite cleverly structured to encourage data use up to a certain level - i.e. if a user has used a small amount they may as well use quite a bite more that day since it will be free.

One major problem in user confidence terms is how traffic beyond the acceptable use criterion...

"Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services such as Skype or Peer-to-Peer services (such as instant messenger services, text messaging clients or file sharing)"

... is handled. That will allegedly immediately be charged separately at the standard rate - and the user will only find out at the end of the month or when the unexpectedly run out of PAYG credit.

I can't help but feel that for the typical punter the Vodafone package doesn't really do much to help build confidence. The mechanism is complex and the possibility of paying more than you expect if you do the "wrong" things even if you do understand it is always hanging over you.

The Orange package is better in that regard - but it does crucially depend on how they implement the fair use policy. Hopefully they take a T-mobile style relatively hands off approach.

They key here is the consumer having the confidence that they won't run up unexpected charges when trying out services that they don't necessarily fully understand.

G.

Mobile data charges - the second coming of the frog?

I know the title of this entry seems a little random, but bear with me!

First lets look back a little at the crazy frog subscriptions debacle in 2005. The basic problem was that Jamba's ads used didn't make it clear that it was a subscription service as opposed to a one off purchase of the single ringtone - and end users felt they were being ripped off. The net result was a distrust in mobile subscriptions that is felt up to the present day - though PayForIt is now making the first tentative steps to making subscriptions acceptable again.

Stepping back slightly the issue was one of transparency of pricing. Users became worried that they would be overcharged for using PSMS services and that dented their confidence to spend.

We are now seeing the same problem again in the area of mobile data charges. End users (who typically won't understand every dot and comma of their price plan) are getting nice shiny new video etc capable phones and heading off enthusiastically to download rich media like videos from the BBC site and things like that. At the end of the first month they are shocked to find their phone bill has increased by a factor of 10 due to the data used.

Again, other folks hear the horror stories (via tabloids, word of mouth etc) and choose not to use data services on their phones. Their confidence to spend has been dented which is bad for everybody.

This general problem isn't just affecting non-technical etc users as illustrated by Mike Rowhel over at This is Mobility.

This whole area is a major bee in my bonnet so I suspect I will be writing more on this over the next while!

Flat rate for data now the norm?

I think most folks in the mobile media business would agree that one of the key inhibitors for uptake of our content and services are the unpredictable nature, from an end user perspective, of data charges.

The apocryphal story of the early adopter with their new 3G phone making heavy use of "free" video clip downloads for the first month and ending up with a bill 10 times larger than normal is I suspect going to figure almost as much as the "crazy frog" subscriptions fiasco when we come to look back on the unnecessary barriers this industry has thrown up in front of mass uptake.

Three's announcement of their new X-series, if a little short on detail at this stage, is a very encouraging step towards the "norm" for mobile data access to be broadband style flat rate under some set of fair use conditions.

This is the second operator to go in this direction in the UK - with T-mobile being the leader in the space with their "web-n-walk" series. Vodafone do have a flat rate data tarif but it is very expensive and aimed at business users - more or less irrelevant in the consumer space.

Now I don't for a minute expect this to be a panacea, this is Three after all, as nicely captured by Carlo Longino over at MobHappy. I fully expect it to be bound up in fairly restrictive "fair use" caveats which plenty of folks will trip over - but it is a great step in the right direction!

There are a lot of other interesting oddments in the announcement - not the least the endorsement of free skype calls and IM - both of which are no doubt aimed to show up the restrictive nature of some of the entry level "web-n-walk" terms of use - but the fundamental here is that flat rate data for the consumer space is going to be the expected norm in very short order - which will benefit all of us.

This will certainly be key for the uptake of richer browser based services on mobile - as enthusiastically pointed out by Ajit over at Open Gardens!

Geoff.